Sunday Market Prep (#7)

Dear Reader,

That was a pretty wild first half of the year. Trading headlines / being early to news was immensely profitable.

Follow-up highlights:

• I sold my TAP 0.00%↑ into what looked like a short squeeze on consumer packaged foods / and alcohol, similar to the one I commented on in the chat a few months back regarding Campbell’s. I still like Molson Coors. I sold to buy BUR 0.00%↑ on the news of a favorable legal judgment and removal of tax increases in Trump’s bill, but I bought it near the top so I’m just breakeven on that.

• I added to CRMD 0.00%↑ and GMAB 0.00%↑

• Still watching COLD 0.00%↑ and NSA 0.00%↑ as potential buys. Scalped them in tiny size last week.

• Trump’s bill includes $187mm to modernize the electronic warfare capabilities of the F-16. I’m not 100% sure but I think ISSC 0.00%↑ should be exposed to this.

Ideas for the week ahead:

• GTBIF — I saw Mike Tyson got on Fox News pleading for relaxed marijuana regulation and, honestly, I expect Trump to take that somewhat seriously because I’m thinking he holds Iron Mike in very high esteem. Green Thumb is the closest thing to a blue chip in this incredibly shady sector. At 18.2x consensus 2026 earnings, it’s at least a respectable punt here in my opinion.

• WDAY 0.00%↑ I think it could be a good buy at $225 based off the history of how it trades versus street price targets. Profitable, massive cash balance, mid teens top line growth. A good acquisition could be a serious game-changer for this company and its financials.

• BUR 0.00%↑ I picked up a ~4% position in this litigation finance specialist after a favorable legal judgment versus Argentina + a reversal of tax increases in earlier versions of Trump’s bill. This has been a special situation darling for years. These legal situations can always drag out longer than you think, but I do think this is a significant milestone and I’m guessing the market was a little fatigued on this name after being whipsawed around so much. I may be mistaken here if the market basically 100% expected the legal judgment and therefore the price action was just unwinding the tax stuff. Argentina has been ordered to transfer its YPF shares as collateral by the 15th, so this isn’t a done deal yet.

• MTCH 0.00%↑ — interesting chatter going on recently. Supposedly they have finally integrated their own payment solution to bypass Apple’s fee, but some have tested this out and it doesn’t appear to be live. Anyway, for those unfamiliar with this story, Match Group has arguably been the most prominent tech value trap for years. This means there could be a lot of pressure to explode to the upside if they win back a lot of margin from Apple. I have a 1% position.

• I picked up a ~1% position in CNC 0.00%↑ and a ~2% position in MOH 0.00%↑. My base assumption is that secular cronyism favors health insurers in general, but this interview did make me significantly more cautious. I’m in here for the “oh shit” factor exposure and portfolio diversification, don’t look to me for answers: