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Brendan's avatar

It does look quite cheap, but I guess one knock is the lack of underlying FCF growth.

In FY19, if you ignore NWC outflows, underlying FCF was roughly $1.18bn.

In FY24, that same figure is now $1.26bn.

That's basically 1% CAGR in a highly inflationary period. Are some of the businesses contending with some stiff headwinds and/or competitive+structural issues?

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scalpavelli's avatar

I don't consider investing in Primark and Sugar to be a negative.

GAAP EPS is probably a very good way to evaluate this business imo. If anything, the depreciation is likely to overstate maintenance capex somewhat.

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Brendan's avatar

At this valuation, you don't really need FCF growth, but it would be really interesting if the growth outlook was actually pretty good

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researchnewsletters1's avatar

Hey, thanks for the note. I think it's pretty interesting. Anything else you can share on the name ? Are there any good write ups ?

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scalpavelli's avatar

There are good writeups on seekingalpha.

No one cares to read them, is my point.

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