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scalpavelli's avatar

I am holding all my shares for a better price after listening to the conference call. My read is that the analyst asking questions did a terrific job of teasing out management's clearly conservative guidance across the board.

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scalpavelli's avatar

just read through $nc q4 earnings. it's a mixed bag. I would say it falls a bit short of my expectations, but probably ahead of where the market is thinking.

pros:

- reaffirmed mitigation resources 2025 profitability guidance

- mining (limestone) going well

- guiding to 2025 operating profit slight increase

cons:

- coal per ton pricing decrease will offset operational improvements

- thacker pass stage 1 pushed back to "late 2027"

- guiding to slight improvement in top of house operating profit

mixed:

- minerals management did end up making an investment in q4 but it came under capex guidance at $15.7mm

i will likely reduce my exposure

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Just A Value Investor's avatar

You probably know this but Geoff Gannon has done a ton of work on Nacco in the past. He’s talked about it on his podcast and has wrote it up a couple of times

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scalpavelli's avatar

I think someone mentioned that to me in the past. I just browsed his website. That is way too much obsession over a resource co and reads more like a cautionary tale than anything else, if you ask me.

Keep things simple...especially in the resource sector...

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Just A Value Investor's avatar

He put half his portfolio in it at the time when it spun off (unless I’m remembering it wrong) so I don’t know if I’d call it an obsession as much as extreme due diligence

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scalpavelli's avatar

Yes I think you're remembering it quite wrong. He wrote the article about putting 50% of his portfolio into it in November 2017, obsessed over it for years then went quiet when it collapsed during 2020 lol. Great cautionary tale against concentrated investing.

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